The Challenges and Trends of Political Polling Ahead of US Elections
As the US Presidential Election approaches, the reliability of political polls is under scrutiny. Historical data shows that while polls close to election day tend to be accurate, earlier polls often misestimate party support. A recent study highlights that many voters may still be undecided, impacting polling accuracy. Comparative international analysis indicates that Irish polls have performed better than average, but the results also reveal that significant polling errors can occur weeks in advance. As polling methods evolve, focus is shifting from mere numbers to understanding voter intentions and trends.